NEWA Model References


Apple Scab Ascospore Maturity
Stensvand, A., Eikemo, H., Gadoury, D.M., and Seem, R.C. 2005. Use of rainfall frequency threshold to adjust a degree-day model of ascospore maturity of Venturia inaequalis. Plant Dis. 89:198-202.
Gadoury, D.M., and MacHardy, W.E. 1982. A model to estimate the maturity of ascospores of Venturia inaequalis. Phytopathology 72:901-904.

Apple Scab Infection Events
Stensvand, A., Gadoury, D.M., Amundsen, T., Semb, L., and Seem, R.C. 1997. Ascospore release and infection of apple leaves by conidia and ascospores of Venturia inaequalis at low temperatures. Phytopathology 87:1046-1053.
Becker, C.M., and Burr, T.J. 1994. Discontinuous wetting and survival of conidia of Venturia inaequalis on apple leaves. Phytopathology 84:372-378.
MacHardy, W.E., and Gadoury, D.M. 1989. A revision of Mills' criteria for predicting apple scab infection periods. Phytopathology 79:304-310; Erratum, 81:809.
Fire Blight Risk
Turechek, W. W., and Biggs, A. R. 2015. Maryblyt v. 7.1 for Windows: An improved fire blight forecasting program for apples and pears. Plant Health Progress 16(1):16-22. doi:10.1094/PHP-RS-14-0046.
Biggs, A. R., and Turechek, W. W. 2010. Fire blight of apples and pears: Epidemiological concepts comprising the Maryblyt forecasting program. Plant Health Progress. doi:10.1094/PHP-2010-0315-01-RS.
Smith, T.J. 2000. Cougarblight fire blight infection risk assessment model. Washington State University.
Steiner, P. W. 1990. Predicting apple blossom infections by Erwinia amylovora using the Maryblyt model. Acta Hort. 273:139-148.
Steiner, P. W. 1988. Maryblyt: A predictive model for eastern apple fire blight. Phytopathology 78:1571.
Fire Blight Symptom Development
Agnello, A.M., Helms, M., Smith, W., Landers, A.J., Rosenberger, D.A., Cox, K., Carroll, J.E., Robinson, T.L., Breth, D.I., Stiles, W., Curtis, P.D., Cheng, L., and Hoying, S.A. Pest Management Guidelines for Commercial Tree-Fruit Production. Cornell Coop. Ext., Ithaca. Updated yearly at
Steiner, P. W. 1990. Predicting canker, shoot and trauma blight phases of apple fire blight epidemics using the Maryblyt program. Acta Hort. 273:149-158.
Sooty Blotch & Flyspeck
Brown, E.M. and Sutton, T.B. 1995. An empirical model for predicting the first symptoms of sooty blotch and flyspeck of apples. Plant Disease. 79:1165-1168.
Codling Moth
Riedl, H., B. A. Croft, and A. J. Howitt. 1976. Forecasting codling moth physiology based on pheromone trap catches and physiological-time models. Can. Entomol. 108:449-460.
Oriental Fruit Moth
Hull, L. A., Myers, C., Ellis, N., and Krawczyk, G. 2003. Management of the internal lepidopteran complex in Pennyslvania. Compact Fruit Tree 36(1):21-25.
Plum Curculio
Reissig, W. H., J. P. Nyrop, & R. Straub. 1998. Oviposition model for timing insecticide sprays against plum curculio (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in New York State. Environ. Entomol. 27: 1053-1061.
Obliquebanded Leafroller
Onstad, D. W., W. H. Reissig, and C. A. Shoemaker. 1985. Phenology and management of the obliquebanded leafroller (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in apple orchards. J. Econ. Entomol. 78: 1455-1462.
Spotted Tentiform Leafminer
Schmaedick, M. A., and J. P. Nyrop. 1995. Method for sampling arthropod pests with uncertain phenology with application to spotted tentiform leafminer (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae). J. Econ. Entomol. 88:875-889.
Schmaedick, M. A., and J. P. Nyrop. 1993. Sampling second generation spotted tentiform leafminer: a means to reduce overall control costs and facilitate biological control of mites in apple orchards. NY Food & Life Science Bulletin No. 143, 4 pp.
Apple Maggot
Reissig, W. H., J. Barnard, R. W. Weires, E. H. Glass, and R. W. Dean. 1979. Prediction of apple maggot fly emergence from thermal unit accumulation. Environ. Entomol. 8:51-54.
San Jose scale
Mague, D. L. and Reissig, W. H. 1983. Phenology of San Jose scale(Homoptera: Diaspididae) in New York State apple orchards. Can. Entomol. 115:717-722.


Black Rot of Grapes
Spotts, R.A. 1977. Effect of leaf wetness duration and temperature on the infectivity of Guignardia bidwellii on grape leaves. Phytopathology 67:1378-1381
Phomopsis Cane and Leaf Spot
Bugaret, Y. 1984. L'excoriose de la vigne: recherches sur le Phomopsis viticola Sacc., nouvelles possibilites de lutte Ph.D. thesis. University of Bordeaux. 160 pp.
Grapevine Powdery Mildew
Gadoury, D.M., and Pearson, R.C. 1990. Ascocarp dehiscence and ascospore discharge in Uncinula necator. Phytopathology. 80:393-401
Gadoury, D.M., and Pearson, R.C. 1990. Germination of ascospores and infection of Vitis by Uncinula necator. Phytopathology. 80:1198-1203
DMcast for Grapevine Downy Mildew
Kennelly, M.M., Gadoury, D.M., Wilcox, W.F., and Seem, R.C. 2007. Primary infection, lesion productivity, and survival of sporangia in the grapevine downy mildew pathogen, Plasmopara viticola. Phytopathology 97:512-522.
Park, E.W., Seem, R.C., Gadoury, D.M., and Pearson, R.C. 1997. DMCAST: a prediction model for grape downy mildew development. Vitic. Enol. Sci. 52:182-189.
Grape Berry Moth
Tobin, P.C., Nagarkatti, S. and Saunders, M.C. 2001. Modeling development in grape berry moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Environ. Entomol. 30:692-699.


Onion Botrytis blight - Blight Alert
Shoemaker, P.B. and Lorbeer, J.W. 1977. Timing the initial fungicide application to control Botrytis leaf blight epidemics on onions. Phytopathology 67:409-414.
Onion Botrytis blight - Modified Blight Alert
Vincelli, P.C. and Lorbeer, J.W. 1989. BLIGHT-ALERT: A weather-based predictive system for timing fungicide applications on onion before infection periods of Botrytis squamosa. Phytopathology 79:493-498.
Onion Botrytis blight - Michigan Botrytis Forecast
Lacy, M.L. and Pontius, G.A. 1983. Prediction of weather-mediated release of conidia of Botrytis squamosa from onion leaves in the field. Phytopathology 73:670-676.
Lacy, M.L. 1991. Timing of fungicide sprays for control of Botrytis leaf blight of onion with a conidial release predictor. Michigan State Univ., Ag. Expt. Stn., East Lansing. Res. Rpt. 513.
Onion Downy Mildew
Jesperson, G.D. and Sutton, J.C. 1987. Evaluation of a forecaster for downy mildew of onion (Allium cepa L.). Crop Protection 6: 95-103.
Alternaria Purple Blotch Spore Release
Everts, K.L. and Lacy, M.L. 1990. Influence of Environment on Conidial Concentration of Alternaria porri in Air and on Purple Blotch Incidence on Onion. Phytopathology 80:1387-1391.
Onion Maggot Emergence
Eckenrode, C.J., Vea, E.V., and Stone, K.W. 1975. Population trends of onion maggots correlated with air thermal unit accumulations. Environ. Entomol. 4:785-789.
Andaloro, J.T., Rose, K.B., and Eckenrode, C.J. 1984. Suppressing onion maggot in commercial fields and research plots, and monitoring with air thermal unit accumulations. NYSAES, Cornell Univ, Geneva, NY. Search Agriculture No. 24, 5 pp.


Potato Late Blight
Krause, R.A., Maxxie, L.A., and Hyre, R.A. 1975. BLITECAST: A computer forecast of potato late blight. Plant Disease Reporter 59: 95-98.
Wallin, J.R. 1962. Summary of recent progress in predicting late blight epidemics in United States and Canada. American J. of Potato Research. 39: 306-312.
Early Blight of Potato
Sands, P.J., Hackett, C., and Nix, H.A. 1979. A model of the development and bulking of potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.) I. Derivation from well-managed field crops. Field Crops Res. 2:309-331.
Pscheidt, J.W. and Stevenson, W.R. 1986. Comparison of Forecasting Methods for Control of Potato Early Blight in Wisconsin. Plant Disease 70:915-920.
Late Blight Decision Support System
Andrade-Piedra, J., Hijmans, R. J., Forbes, G. A., Fry, W. E. and Nelson, R. J. 2005. Simulation of potato late blight in the Andes: I, Modification and parameterization of the LATEBLIGHT model. Phytopathology 95: 1191-1199.

Other Crops

Cabbage Maggot
Eckenrode, C. and Chapman, R.K. 1971. Effect of various temperatures upon rate of development of the cabbage maggot under artificial conditions. Ann. Entomol. Soc. Amer. 64: 1079-1083.
Eckenrode, C. and Chapman, R.K. 1972. Seasonal adult cabbage maggot populations in the field in relation to thermal-unit accumulations. Ann. Entomol. Soc. Amer. 65: 151-156.
Madden, L., S.P. Pennypacker, and A.A. MacNab. 1978. FAST, a forecast system for Alternaria solani on tomato. Phytopathology 68:1354-1358.
Pitblado, R.E. 1992. Development of TOM-CAST. Ontario Ministry Agriculture and Food. 25 p.
Stewart’s Wilt of Sweet Corn
Esker, P.D., Harri, J., Dixon, P.M., and Nutter, F.W., Jr. 2006. Comparison of models for forecasting of Stewartís disease of corn in Iowa. Plant Dis. 90:1353-1357.
Nutter, F.W., Rubsam, R.R., Taylor, S.E., Harri, J.A., and Esker, P.D. 2002. Use of geospatially-referenced disease and weather data to improve site-specific forecasts for Stewartís disease of corn in the U.S. corn belt. Comput. Electron. Agric. 37:7-14.
Alfalfa Weevil
Waldron, J.K. 1991. Alfalfa Scouting Procedures, Growing Alfalfa the IPM Way. Cornell Coop. Ext., NYS IPM Program Pub. No. 305. 39 pp.

Under Development

Dragoni, D., A.N. Lakso, and R.M. Piccioni. 2004. Transpiration of an apple orchard in a cool humid climate: measurement and modeling. Acta Hort. 664:175-180.